According to China Rural Voice's "Sannong China" report, in recent years, with the rapid growth of raw milk imports, the domestic dairy industry has been hit hard, milk prices have fallen, and the number of cows has fallen rapidly. As early as March of this year, domestic dairy farming losses exceeded 50%. But recently, a "good voice of milk" came out-the milk price coordination meeting to discuss the rise in milk prices. This news is really exciting for the domestic dairy market that has been in a downturn for a long time. Today ’s Agricultural Economics talks about Xu Chunhui, a special commentator on the Voice of China ’s Rural Village, to talk to you: Can the domestic milk market step into the upward channel with the pace of the rise in international milk prices?
Xu Chunhui, Special Commentator, Voice of China Village:
Speaking of the domestic milk market in recent years, dairy farmers and milk companies are a bitter tear. Since the second half of 2014, the domestic milk industry has encountered setbacks. Under the impact of imported milk, many domestic dairy companies have fought against the price war to win the market. At the same time, the milk farming industry is also hard to escape bad luck. There are many cases of "difficult to sell milk", and even some areas have "falling milk to kill cattle".
Speaking of the current milk market, I remembered going to the supermarket during the Mid-Autumn Festival a few days ago. I found that the discount on milk and yoghurt products in the supermarket was very strong. One of the brands originally had more than 60 yuan in a box of pure milk. "Free one", I simply calculated it, which is equivalent to less than 2 yuan for a box of pure milk, it is really cheap enough. Why is the demand for fresh milk from dairy companies decreasing? What is driving down the price of raw milk? Why has milk sales stalled? In fact, I think this is mainly due to the impact of low-cost imported milk and consumers' "trust crisis" in the domestic milk industry.
Let ’s look at a set of data: In May this year, the average price of raw milk in the world was converted to RMB 1.44 per kilogram, and the average price of raw milk in China ’s 10 main production areas was 3.46 yuan per kilogram; the CIF price of imported milk powder was recently 18,000 tons, but close to 30,000 yuan per ton domestically. From this we can also see that compared with the price of domestic raw milk, the price of foreign milk is more competitive, which has led to the continuous expansion of dairy imports; in addition to low-cost imported milk, there are Chinese people who face the domestic milk. Its "trust crisis". Since the melamine poisoning milk powder incident in 2008, domestic consumers' trust in domestic milk powder has fallen to the bottom, and they have purchased foreign-brand milk powder. During this process, the remaining domestic dairy products that had not been involved were also lying down, and sales were greatly affected.
In the context of the endless domestic milk prices, the rapid decline in the number of dairy cows, the increasing loss of dairy farming, and the difficulties faced by dairy farmers, the "good voice of milk" has finally come from the market recently. Recently, some major milk-producing provinces have successively held milk price coordination meetings in the fourth quarter to discuss the rise of milk prices. This is a lot of good news for dairy farmers. It is understood that the recent international milk prices have continued to rebound, and as the National Day and New Year's Day follow, the domestic raw milk has begun to be purchased in full due to the stocking factors. The combination of internal and external factors has prompted the domestic raw milk purchase price to rise.
But how much did it rise? I think this needs to be tested by the market. The key to what we can do right now is to further upgrade the scale of aquaculture, innovate marketing channels, and restore consumer trust and confidence in the domestic milk market.
In terms of large-scale farming, we are also pleased to see that the major milk-producing province, Hebei Province, vigorously promotes the "community-to-ranch" to further increase the level of large-scale farming. By promoting advanced breeding technology, while improving the quality of raw milk, Increase milk production of dairy cows; in terms of innovative marketing, I think for farmers and breeding enterprises, we must still do scientific breeding and take the initiative to transform. For example, dairy farmers are encouraged to invest in land, capital, cows, technology, and labor to form professional cooperatives, establish large-scale pastures, and form standardized, large-scale, and modern production to reduce production costs; they can also use fresh milk bars, yogurt bars, and Online sales and other methods can help digest a certain amount of fresh milk; but how to restore consumer trust and confidence in the domestic milk market, I think this is an important issue that Chinese dairy companies need to think about. At present, the country has made up its mind to resolve and upgrade the entire structure of China's food industry, and China's supervision and monitoring of the dairy industry is relatively higher than some categories of other food industries.
After a short period of two years of downturn, can the domestic milk market enter the upward channel through factors such as the "international milk price entering the recovery channel" and the market demand turning strong? Let us look forward to it here; we also In the hope of raising the price of fresh milk, dairy provinces should not "speak back", but open their hearts and talk freely.
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