The current corn market is really "treacherous". The reduction of corn planting area, the sale of old corn stocks, the subsidy of producer subsidies, the reduction in the import of corn substitutes, the drought in the northeast production area ... let producers, purchasers, trade Both commercial and consumption enterprises are cautious about the new-yield corn that will be launched on a large scale. As long as the price of corn in the new season is uncertain, which market entity will not dare to enter the market easily.
At present, farmers are concerned about whether the subsidies issued can make up for the loss of profits caused by the price drop. Traders and demanding enterprises are more concerned about the changes in the psychology of farmers selling grain after receiving subsidies and whether the price of new corn will decline as a result.
Maize is risk in hand
Although it is impossible to determine whether the price of newly-produced corn will go up or down after listing, industry insiders are expected to tend to decline. In addition, the quality of new-produced corn is definitely better than that of old corn, and there are many regions where demanding companies can choose to purchase. Before going public, the market was full of wait-and-see sentiment.
For traders and demanding companies, if the purchase of temporary corn is in the hands, and when the newly produced corn is put on the market, the price will be lower, and losses will be inevitable. Now it is a risk to put corn in the hands, except for poor quality The reason, this is the main reason why the current auction corn auction turnover rate and transaction price are not high.
Corn maize "out of stock is a tiger" "in stock is a mouse"
Corn stock corn is a potential source of supply and an important factor that always suppresses the rise in corn prices. For its impact, "Futures Daily" analyzes from different perspectives:
After the new corn is put on the market, if the price goes low and goes low, and is lower than the price of the temporary storage auction, then the corn will not have much impact. Due to the low quality and high price of aged corn, the number of its entering the market through auction will gradually decrease. If effective supply cannot be formed, Chen Maize will continue to "strive hard to make money" for the purchasing and storage enterprises. For the "marketized" corn market, the backlog of old corn is "a mouse", and its influence is too small to mention.
Jiangsu Nanjing grain and oil trader Qiangsheng analysis said that only when the price of new corn is high, or the supply of new corn is insufficient, the influence of stock corn will be exerted. That is to say, when the old corn enters the market and becomes available, it will affect the price trend of corn.
"At present, in the corn market, the relevant departments are increasing their efforts to destock. Although they have not yet achieved obvious results, it does not rule out the possibility of taking more measures in the future. If new measures are introduced, such as lowering the reserve price of old corn auctions, participating in If the auctioned enterprise subsidizes, then it is necessary to pay attention to Chen Maize's influence. "Qiangsheng believes that Chen Ma's" status "can be summed up in one sentence:" It is a mouse in the storehouse "and" a warehouse is a tiger. "
It is difficult to control the market in the Northeast production area
Different from the northeastern production area, which suffered continuous drought and typhoon damage, the yield of corn was different. In recent years, the area of corn planting in the mainland has increased steadily, and the plant varieties have been gradually improved, the weather conditions in the production area are better, and the corn yield and total output have both increased.
Judging from the growth of corn in Henan and surrounding provinces, the bumper corn harvest in the mainland can be basically determined, and new corn is expected to be marketed in large quantities in mid-October. If the weather is fine during the harvest, the quality of the new corn will be higher.
In addition, the newly-produced corn in the mainland is released earlier than the corn produced in the northeast, which will also weaken the positive effect of the disaster weather on the price in the northeastern production area.
Will farmers sell corn at a reduced price?
At present, the market has many speculations about farmers' willingness to sell grain and the market price of newly produced corn.
The main body of market purchase and sale generally believes that farmers will sell corn at a reduced price, mainly because farmers basically have no say in pricing. In addition, farmers will not have a backlog of corn after harvesting. First, there is no place to store it. Second, many farmers have tight funds and have to sell them early. Third, the current corn market is oversupplied as a whole. If it is low, it might as well be sold as soon as possible.
Some organizations predict that due to the large amount of subsidies, farmers ’enthusiasm for selling new corn will increase, and price expectations will also fall. The psychological price is 1400-1450 yuan / ton, and it does not rule out that the lowest listed price of new corn will fall to 1350 yuan / Tons of possible.
Maize price fluctuations will be amplified
What is more worthy of attention is that there is not much storage capacity in the Northeast producing area to store and produce new corn. When the price rises and falls are uncertain, it is estimated that there are not many entities that actively enter the market and make large acquisitions at the initial stage of the new corn production.
Coupled with the withdrawal of the temporary reserve, the market will undergo a process of mentality adjustment and price revaluation. In this process, the fluctuations in corn prices will increase, and purchase and sales activities will be more cautious.
In addition, with the cancellation of the purchasing and storage policy, the phenomenon of backflow of corn from the mainland to the northeast may disappear, and the supply pressure of corn from the mainland will be greater than in previous years. At that time, corn from different origins will start fierce competition, and price and quality will become the main competitive reference indicators.
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