Introduction:
【Related News】
1. The weather forecast states that there will be favorable rains for crops in the Midwest of the United States this month, and soybean crops are in the pod setting stage, which is a critical stage in determining the yield level.
2. Analysts on average estimated that US soybean production in 2016 was 3.949 billion bushels, higher than the USD 3.88 billion bushels estimated by the USDA in July. The soybean yield is estimated at 47.6 bushels / acre.
3. Analysts' estimated average value shows that USDA will lower the US 2015/16 soybean year-end stock estimate to 328 million bushels, and USDA's July estimate is 350 million bushels. The US 2016/17 soybean year-end stock forecast is expected to be raised to 323 million bushels, and USDA's July estimate is 290 million bushels.
4. Analysts ’estimated average value shows that USDA will lower the global 2015/16 soybean year-end stock forecast to 71.4 million tons, and USDA ’s July estimate is 72.2 million tons. Global 2016/17 soybean year-end stock estimates are expected to be raised to 67.4 million tons, USDA forecast for July is 67.1 million tons.
5. On Wednesday, USDA failed to confirm the conclusion of a new soybean transaction through its daily reporting system for the first time in 11 trading days.
6. Traders predict that the USDA export sales report released on Thursday shows that as of the week of August 4, the US net export of soybeans in 2015-16 will be 200,000 to 400,000 tons, and the net export of soybeans in 2016-17 In 190-2.5 million tons.
7. China will promote the commercialization of genetically modified soybeans in the next five years, as China seeks to improve the efficiency of China's agricultural sector, which may increase China's soybean production.
【Soybean Meal Market】
U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday as the weather of the U.S. crop improved and investors contracted to take profits after the November contract rose five days in a row. Soybean meal futures followed the decline of soybeans, and soybean oil futures rose due to soybean oil / soybean meal spreads. The CBOT November soybean contract closed down 5-3 / 4 cents to US $ 9.82-1 / 4 per bushel. Today's consecutive soybean meal closed up, with a 1609 closing price of 3003 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton, or 0.03%.
【Soybean meal spot】
Today, the domestic soybean meal spot market has stopped rising and stabilized, and very few have been slightly lowered. Among them, the soybean meal price of oil plants in Rizhao, Shandong: 43% protein: 3080 yuan / ton; stable. Soybean meal price in Tianjin oil market: 43% protein: 3130 yuan / ton; stable. Soybean meal price of oil mills in Qinhuangdao area: 43% protein: 3140 yuan / ton; stable. The price of soybean meal in oil factories in Dongguan, Guangdong: 43% protein: 3170 yuan / ton; stable. Soybean meal price for foreign-invested oil mills in Fangchenggang, Guangxi: 43% protein: 3180 yuan / ton; stable. Soybean meal price of oil mills in Zhoukou area: 43% protein: 3170 yuan / ton; down 20 yuan / ton.
【Market Analysis】
As the weather continued to improve and profit was settled, the strong export demand before the end of US soybeans continued to rise for 5 days and fell slightly on Wednesday. Soybean meal also fell, but soybean oil rose. According to the weather forecast, there will be favorable rains for crops in the Midwest of the United States this month, and soybean crops are in the pod setting period, which is a critical stage for determining the yield level. At present, the market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture to release its monthly supply and demand report. Analysts on average expect that US soybean production in 2016 will be 3.949 billion bushels. If the report exceeds market expectations, US soybeans will continue to fall. After the support of 950 cents, export demand is strong. Driven by the rebound, continued to pull back after encountering resistance around 1000 cents.
In terms of domestic soybean meal spot, investors benefited from the weather and the weather improved. US soybeans ended their fifth consecutive rise and turned into a downward trend. At present, soybeans are in the podging period, and favorable rainfall makes the crops grow well. Most domestic soybean meal spots have also stabilized today, partially Slightly lowered by 10-20 yuan / ton. Due to the good weather, the market generally expected that the US supply and demand report was negative on Friday, but the spot transaction volume of domestic soybean meal was expected to be negative yesterday or yesterday. The report is expected to be negative or has been released in advance. Low inventory can be filled in appropriate amounts. Pay close attention to the final report. Not big.
.jpeg)
