Release of vegetable meal spot slows down the future price
As of now, the national average price of rapeseed meal has dropped by 106.5 yuan / ton from last month to 2,558.82 yuan / ton, up 464.7 yuan / ton year-on-year. It is understood that the current offer price of Shenyang plus rapeseed meal (Canadian rapeseed meal) has fallen by 170 yuan / ton to 2680 yuan / ton, the spot offer of Shanghai plus seed meal has fallen by 80 yuan / ton to 2620 yuan / ton. The quotation fell by 140 yuan / ton to 2560 yuan / ton, the domestic spot price of Hubei fell by 150 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton, the quotation of Guizhou fell by 100 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton, and the spot price of Hefei decreased by 100 yuan / Ton to 2600 yuan / ton, Chengdu offers fell by 150 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton. As of August 21, the rapeseed meal inventory of oil plants increased by 15 thousand tons to 41,000 tons from last month, an increase of 3.8%; unexecuted contracts decreased by 99,500 tons to 211,000 tons, a decrease of 32%. Meal stocks have increased and unexecuted contracts have fallen sharply. It is not difficult to understand why this week's rapeseed meal spot has fallen sharply, mainly because soybean meal and DDGS have squeezed part of the rapeseed meal consumer market, resulting in a slow market take-off and therefore poor spot purchases and sales.
Rapeseed meal drops more than similar protein feed
It is understood that the current spot price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 673.6 yuan / ton, an increase of 76.77 yuan / ton from the previous month, and the price difference between rapeseed meal and DDGS has decreased by 142.03 yuan / ton to 623.26 yuan / ton. Soybean meal and DDGS continue to give up the expectations brought about by the double anti in the early stage. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China ’s DDGS import volume in July was 377,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65.8%. From January to July 2016, DDGS import volume totaled 1.917 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.547 million tons, a 46% decrease. . Although the DDGS double-anti incident is not clear, and the country ’s punitive tariffs on DDGS have not yet been introduced, it is clear that the domestic import fever has declined. At this time, DDGS inventory digestion is slower, and the spot upside is small, but the market outlook for rapeseed meal The impact of the market cannot be underestimated.
Rapeseed oil follows strength to suppress rapeseed meal
According to customs data, China imported 550,000 tons of vegetable oil in July, higher than 400,000 tons in June, but much lower than 1.06 million tons in the same period last year. From January to July this year, China imported 3.57 million tons of vegetable oil, which was a year-on-year increase. The 4.6 million tons has dropped by 1.03 million tons. Among them, China imported 340,921 tons of rapeseed from Canada in July 2016, an increase of 73.52% year-on-year. From January to July 2016, China imported 2.343 million tons of rapeseed, a decrease of 8.24% from last year ’s 2.5444 million tons. It is understood that China ’s imports of vegetable oils have declined sharply in the first seven months of this year, of which palm oil imports totaled 2.199 million tons, a significant decrease of 994,000 tons from the 3.193 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 31%; total soybean oil imports were 285,676 tons. A year-on-year decrease of 22.89%; the total import of rapeseed oil was 4,258,275 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Due to the large reduction in domestic rapeseed production, the import dependence of rapeseed oil still exists, resulting in the performance of rapeseed oil inferior to other oils and fats this month. The current spot price is maintained at 6250-6300 yuan / ton, and the market is also changing. It is difficult to make a breakthrough in rapeseed meal prices. With the peak of the domestic aquaculture peak season coming to an end, the spot purchase of rapeseed meal is still difficult to improve. In September, the US soybeans will be on the market and will continue to suppress domestic meal prices. Therefore, it is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will rise easily and fall.
In summary, it is expected that the domestic rapeseed meal fundamentals will not improve before the end of the third quarter. Despite the support of southern aquatic stocks, the overall market is still suppressed by the high yield of US beans.
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