Weekly report of China's main feed ingredients and additives market in the fifth week of June 2017
1. Overview of main feed ingredients and additives market:
In the fifth week of June 2017 (June 26-July 2 total week 26), the overall supply of domestic main feed materials and additives was adequate this week, and the weekly comprehensive average price was slightly stronger than the previous month. Respectively, the weekly average price of energy feed materials rose month-on-month, and corn and bran increased relatively significantly; the overall weekly average price of protein feed materials fell overall, and the weekly average price of soybean meal and vegetable meal continued to decline slightly; additives The weekly average price of small-sized amino acids continued to rise month-on-month, the weekly average price of phosphorus and calcium continued to fall, and the prices of some vitamin products increased significantly.
In terms of energy raw materials, 1) In the corn market, the corn market ushered in 14 years of temporary storage corn auctions, and the auction pricing also met the previous expectations of the industry, and the market transactions were active. In terms of quotations, CBOT corn futures rose slightly, and Dalian corn futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Recently, the supply of new grain in the domestic corn market has been interrupted, and only a few traders still have inventory. In addition, the slow export of old grain and tight transportation capacity, the lack of effective supply, the shortage of high-quality corn in the market, the inventory of some grain-using enterprises has decreased. Continued to rise, the national corn spot market rose week-on-month; 2) In terms of wheat, the overall wheat market this week was stable and slightly strengthened. Recently, the listing of new wheat has been accelerating. Most of the domestic market is now this year. The main body of market acquisition is enthusiastic about the acquisition of new wheat, coupled with the rapid progress of the acquisition of the market, the market of wheat is mostly favorable, and the price of wheat continues to rise slightly; 3) In terms of bran and sub-powder, domestic bran and sub-powder markets have strengthened this week. The seasonal consumption of flour consumption is low, the start-up rate of flour mills is low, the supply of bran and secondary flour is low, coupled with the market's periodic replenishment and the support of rising corn prices, the prices of bran and secondary flour have mostly rebounded in recent times. momentum.
In terms of protein raw materials, 1) In the soybean meal market, despite the fact that the favorable weather dragged down most of US soybeans last Friday, the electronic disk and continuous soybean meal rose on Monday, supporting the domestic soybean meal spot price to rise steadily and slightly. Later, boosted by low-suction buying, weaker-than-expected US soybean growth and technical buying, US soybean futures prices rose for four consecutive days from Monday to Thursday, returning to the 920-cent line. However, looking at the domestic soybean meal spot market, the spot market is mainly stable, with partial narrow-range fluctuations and consolidation. It has not followed the US soybeans to continue to rise. The overall performance is obviously calm, and the market is more cautious. As of Thursday night, the US soybean futures contract closed at 924.75 cents in November, up 20.25 cents from last Friday. On June 30, U.S. time, the USDA soybean report was bullish, and the U.S. soybean futures prices rose sharply, driving the spot price of soybean meal in most areas of the country to increase significantly on Saturday and Sunday; Consolidated in a narrow range, lacking clear guidance on the spot market of rapeseed meal, the domestic inland domestic rapeseed meal is more stable, and the quotation of seed meal in the coastal and port areas has been adjusted slightly and moderately; in the case of cotton meal, the stock of cotton meal is tight and the squeezing cost is partial High-support manufacturers are quite strong, cotton meal prices are relatively resistant to decline, and the weekly average price is stable and relatively strong. 3) In terms of fishmeal, Peruvian fishmeal quantity in the new season is considerable, and Peruvian stocks are supported by low salesable inventory. The business mentality is stable. Recently, new Peruvian goods have arrived in some ports. In addition, the continued heavy rains in the southern market have affected the demand for fishmeal. Fishmeal stocks have declined slowly, exerting pressure on the fishmeal market, fishmeal prices continue to adjust within a narrow range, and imported fishmeal prices are weak.
In the amino acid market, 1) In terms of lysine, the price of lysine continued to rise steadily this week. Recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and manufacturers have taken the opportunity to raise prices. At the same time, as summer temperatures rise, manufacturers will also carry out the next production shutdown and maintenance. At that time, the supply of goods will be reduced, which will provide favorable support for the lysine market. The methionine market maintained a steady upward trend; 2) In terms of methionine, domestic methionine prices continued to rise slightly this week, but the increase was not large. At present, imported brands such as Evonik Degussa and Ziguang Tianhua have successively raised their methionine quotations, which has effectively stimulated the methionine market in China. In addition, the poultry market efficiency has improved compared with the previous period, which is conducive to demand. Market attention has increased. This week, methionine prices continued Rose slightly.
Second, market price dynamics:
According to the statistics of the China Feed Industry Information Network Huitong Data Research Department, the overall supply of domestic main feed ingredients and additives was adequate this week, and the weekly comprehensive average price was slightly stronger than the previous month. Respectively, the weekly average price of energy feed materials rose month-on-month, and corn and bran increased relatively significantly; the overall weekly average price of protein feed materials fell overall, and the weekly average price of soybean meal and vegetable meal continued to decline slightly; additives The weekly average price of small-sized amino acids continued to rise month-on-month, the weekly average price of phosphorus and calcium continued to fall, and the prices of some vitamin products increased significantly.
Chart 1: Weekly average price statistics of China's main feed ingredients / additives in the fifth week of June 2017 (in RMB / ton):
3. Later market forecast:
The scale of aquaculture will increase slightly in July, and the demand and consumption of major domestic feed ingredients may improve the market. Respectively, the prices of energy raw materials are expected to run in a volatile and strong trend. Protein raw materials may reverse the continuous decline in July to achieve a moderate increase, and the amino acid market will maintain a greater chance of volatile consolidation.
1) In terms of corn, the supply of corn in North China has been low recently. Local grain companies have a certain demand for local new grain. The overall supply is tight, especially the proportion of high-quality corn is small. The "price" feature is still obvious. As auction grains continue to flow into the market, North China will ship grains out of the warehouse and July and southern spring corn will be supplied to the market after July, and corn will be released this week in 14 years. The supply pressure of Chenliang is still relatively large, and domestic pig prices are still high. At a low level, the price of poultry eggs is running weakly, and into the summer, the high-temperature meat and poultry enter the off-season of consumption, the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the fence is low, and the demand for feed terminals is suppressed, while the probability of deep processing companies declines, and the demand for corn industry is not improving. The negative pressure on its market is expected to accelerate the destocking rhythm in the later period, and the supply pressure on the spot market will become prominent, limiting the continued upward price of corn spot prices.
2) In the wheat market, with the large number of new wheat being listed and the continuous supply of the market, the wheat stocks acquired by various market players are becoming saturated, and the acquisition mentality will gradually become rational in the later period, and the rising trend of new wheat prices in the main production areas will slow down. . Coupled with the small consumption of wheat in summer, which restricts the rise in wheat prices, the price of new wheat is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, supported by the city ’s acquisition policy.
3) In the bran and sub-powder market, in July, due to the sudden decrease in the concentrated consumption of flour, milling companies adopted a strategy to reduce the start-up time to maintain the balance between production and consumption, and the supply of bran and sub-powder market decreased. In addition, the price of raw material costs tended to increase slightly in the recent period, supporting the upward adjustment of the prices of bran and secondary powder. However, due to the limited demand for summer feed, which restricts the increase of bran and secondary powder, it is expected that the prices of the two will experience a moderately strong trend in the near future. the process of.
4) In the soybean meal market, the US Department of Agriculture ’s planted area report and quarterly inventory report data on June 30 were lower than expected, supporting some domestic squeezing companies and traders to raise the spot soybean meal ex-factory price. However, the quantity of imported beans is still huge, and the terminal demand of the aquaculture industry is still limited. On the premise that the loose supply and demand pattern has not changed, the sustainability of the current round of soybean meal prices has yet to be tested by the market. However, if the weather in the main US soybean producing areas is superimposed on the US agricultural report, the US soybean futures price may be pushed up again, and the domestic soybean meal spot market may rise in time.
5) In the rapeseed meal market, the domestic soybean meal spot digests the US Department of Agriculture report to be bullish, short-term or maintain a strong consolidation situation, the rapeseed meal spot will gain some benefits from this, coastal and port added seed meal fluctuations will be relatively close; inland domestic rapeseed meal Affected by this is minimal, or will maintain the current price level stable operation. In addition, strong rainfall continued in the southern region, and the "Yangtze River No. 1 Flood" invaded. The main aquaculture areas in Hunan and Hubei were seriously affected, or to a certain extent, the process of rapeseed meal followed by soybean meal increase.
6) In the cotton meal market, the price of raw material cottonseeds is strong during the period of green and yellow; some oil plants in Shandong have remained shut down due to environmental problems. The overall start-up of oil plants in the country is limited, and the supply of cotton meal supply has been tightened. The terminal consumption of the aquaculture industry is limited, the disadvantages of cotton meal cost-effectiveness still exist, and the difficult transaction situation is still difficult to reverse. The domestic short-term digestion of soybean meal is more beneficial or boosts cotton meal market to maintain a relatively high level of consolidation.
7) As far as fishmeal is concerned, the domestic traditional aquatic season has already entered the domestic market, but the overall performance of aquatic products is weak, which makes domestic fishmeal demand light, the phenomenon of false high fishmeal prices, and lower prices. At the same time, the first fishing season in north-central Peru is coming to an end, and the overall fishing situation is relatively good. It is expected that the weak and stable fishmeal market will not change in the short term.
8) In terms of lysine in the amino acid market, the current upstream manufacturers in the market continue to maintain their prices. Under the double favorable impact of the rebound in pig breeding efficiency and boosting the support of the demand side, the market continues to maintain a strong performance; in addition, market rumors claim that Some large-scale manufacturers in China have completed the contract sales of this month in advance and increased export quotations, which has also formed a certain supporting role for the lysine market. It is expected that the market lysine market will continue to run steadily and strong; The import volume is limited, the market supply is tight, and the inventory is low. At the same time, the main importers of the methionine market continue to raise prices. It is expected that the methionine market will remain strong in the short term.
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