In 2018, corn destocking achieved results. The temporary storage turnover exceeded 100 million tons. As new and old grains alternated, due to weather and farmers ’reluctance to sell in the middle and early quarters of the fourth quarter, the amount of new corn grains was limited, and the market rose month by month. The upward adjustment raises the cost of lysine manufacturers, while the enterprises ’long-term export orders are well signed. The export volume of lysine in the fourth quarter has maintained a high level. Manufacturers quoted 98 content at 8.2 yuan / kg, and 70 content at 5.2 yuan / kg, up 0.1 yuan / kg from last week. Domestic spot supply was tight, and the 98 content lysine price range in the market was mostly 8.2-8.8 yuan / kg (See the figure below). The European market quotation of lysine hydrochloride in the fourth quarter was stable at 1.25-1.30 euros / kg.
As can be seen from the above figure, mid-to-early July is the lowest point of the year, about 7.3 yuan / kg, and then the manufacturer opened the price increase switch and started many small price increases, although only about 0.1 yuan / kg each time. However, there are many times that it ca n’t stand. From July to now, the lysine market has risen by as much as 13.7%. Due to the adjustment of the production plan of small variety amino acids, the production of 98.5% lysine was postponed to February 2019 in Xijie Shenyang plant this month. This month Dongxiao and Fufeng put new capacity into production. Due to the limited corn supply and low operating rate, the impact on the market is temporarily limited. This week Dongxiao manufacturers quoted 98 yuan at 8.1 yuan / kg and 70 yuan at 5.1 yuan / kg; Fu Feng 70 content is priced at 4.9 yuan. Kg, only for northern customers.
The export of lysine products in China was blocked in Russia in the first quarter, but the export volume of lysine decreased year-on-year (see above), but benefited from China's Belt and Road policy to expand sales areas and global feed production growth, China's lysine export volume in the second quarter Growth resumed. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a document saying that the export tax rebate for lysine esters, lysine salts, and DL-hydroxymethionine products will be raised to 13% from September 15 onwards, which will benefit China's lysine exports. From January to September 2018, China's lysine export volume was about 436,600 tons (equivalent to 98.5%), of which China's lysine sulfate export volume increased by 28% in September.
In summary, at present, the progress of the new corn grain supply is slow, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises is suppressed, the rising cost and good exports support the lysine market, and the short-term stability is strong. The lysine market is intertwined, domestic swine fever is rampant, and the production and sales of pig feed fell in the fourth quarter. With the increase of new corn grains, the operating rate of lysine production companies may increase, which will cause the market to exist in December. The possibility of a slight correction. However, stocking by the feeding companies will be carried out one after another. Many factors such as strong corn price volatility, environmental protection and production limitation, weather, logistics and other factors support the market. Follow-up needs to pay attention to the dynamics of relevant manufacturers.
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