shocked! Soybean meal in many places skyrocketed overnight, with a peak of 330 yuan / ton! Do feeds really need to increase prices across the board?

　Recently, the United States has provoked a trade war again. Domestic soybean meal prices have skyrocketed overnight, with a maximum increase of 330 yuan per ton! If feed prices rise again, it will place a greater burden on farmers. So how long will the soybean meal price increase last? Will the market outlook cool down? What about the feed price trend?

U.S. restarts trade war, soybean meal prices skyrocket overnight

Integrated Zhongyi Finance Network, Tianxia Granary, etc.

Zhongyi Finance Network June 18, on the evening of June 15, the US government announced that it would impose a 25% import tariff on 50 billion US dollars of goods originating in China. Shortly afterwards, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced that it decided to impose additional tariffs on imports of agricultural products such as soybeans, automobiles, and aquatic products originating in the United States at a tax rate of 25%. . The above measures will take effect from July 6, 2018.

China's list of tariffs imposed on US commodities, the industry, especially the feed raw materials that soybean farmers are very concerned about, are listed, as well as corn and sorghum. Although the tariff increase was only implemented from July 6, 2018, the merchants who sniffed out the flames of war quickly raised the price of soybean meal on June 16, the magnitude is staggering, the highest skyrocketed 330 yuan / ton.

　Soybean meal in many places soared overnight According to Zhongyi Finance Net reported that the US soybeans fell sharply the day before yesterday due to the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war. Domestic dealers generally reluctant to sell and have a strong willingness to increase prices. Yesterday, the price of 43 protein soybean meal surged. Among them, the delivery price to the factory was Rizhao China Textile's output of 3120 yuan / ton, an increase of 310 yuan / ton from the day before yesterday, Rizhao Bangji's output of 3150 yuan / ton, a rise of 330 yuan / ton from the previous day, and Rizhao Lingyun Seafood's 3120 yuan / ton, compared The day before yesterday rose 310 yuan / ton, Rizhao Dafu 3120 yuan / ton, Taizhou Yihai produce 3140 yuan / ton, Funing North Great Waste 3120 yuan / ton. Other price increase areas are Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinyang, Anyang and Nanyang in Henan; Haikou in Hainan; Taizhou and Lianyungang in Jiangsu. Soybean meal stocks are high and demand has not improved. The current soy planting in the United States has basically ended. Soybeans have entered a stage of growth and development. Recently, the weather in the US soybean producing areas has been good. From June to September, domestic soybean arrivals in Hong Kong will remain at a relatively high level, soybean meal supply will be sufficient, and soybean meal fundamental pressure will remain high. USDA June supply and demand report, lowered US soybean stocks, Brazil soybean production and export estimates for 2018/19 were raised, and Argentina's estimates were flat. The domestic 300,000 tons of soybean storage will be carried out on June 14 in China, and a new batch of 300,000 tons of soybean storage will be carried out on June 20, which has a negative impact. The weather in the United States is good, and the US bean has a strong start.

　　On the supply side: huge volume of arrivals and high inventory. It is estimated that the arrival volume in June will be 9.8-10 million tons, and it will be 9.6-9.8 million tons in July. The concentrated arrival in May-July may equal or even exceed the level of the same period last year. As of the week of June 1, soybean stocks at major factories were 6.804 million tons, compared with 5.736 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal stocks were 1.279 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year. In terms of demand, the overall price of the domestic hog market has slowly increased, but the demand for terminal meat has not improved. The price of soybean meal may rise steadily as a whole, and there are still many changes in the market outlook. Due to the tight trade relationship between China and the United States, the domestic soybean meal disk has been oscillated at a high level. However, due to the worrisome domestic soybean meal fundamentals, oil mills may raise the price of soybean meal prices, which may lead to a steady increase in spot soybean meal prices. The Sino-US trade war may boost the domestic soybean meal market. Demand has soared for about 10-15 days. At the same time, the tariff increase will only be implemented on July 6. According to the US Trade Act of 1974, Trump can postpone the start of tariffs by 30 days; if the US trade representative makes progress in negotiations with China, it can be extended by another 180 days, resulting in more mishaps in the soybean meal outlook.